A Dynamical Systems Model of Rhino Population, Poaching, and Horn Trade
Start Date
7-8-2026 10:45 AM
End Date
7-8-2026 11:00 AM
Location
ALT 204
Abstract
Rhino populations in Africa have faced extreme poaching threats since colonial times, largely driven by the demand for horn. Since 1977, the international commercial trade of rhino horn has been banned by CITES (The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). In response, an illicit supply chain has developed to work around the ban, supplying horn to black market consumers through advanced crime syndicates and poaching. As populations have dwindled, black market prices have risen and the debate of legalizing international trade has risen to the forefront of conservationist discussion. Proponents argue that legalization would increase supply, lower market prices for horn, and generate revenue for antipoaching efforts. However, those opposed to legalization argue that it would increase demand, drive market prices up, and streamline illegal horn transportation. This research provides a dynamical systems model that captures the arguments from both positions. A sensitivity analysis is conducted using partial rank correlation coefficients to determine the relative influence of parameters on model outcomes. A threshold analysis identifies regions of parameter space where legalization will support or harm rhino population recovery.
A Dynamical Systems Model of Rhino Population, Poaching, and Horn Trade
ALT 204
Rhino populations in Africa have faced extreme poaching threats since colonial times, largely driven by the demand for horn. Since 1977, the international commercial trade of rhino horn has been banned by CITES (The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora). In response, an illicit supply chain has developed to work around the ban, supplying horn to black market consumers through advanced crime syndicates and poaching. As populations have dwindled, black market prices have risen and the debate of legalizing international trade has risen to the forefront of conservationist discussion. Proponents argue that legalization would increase supply, lower market prices for horn, and generate revenue for antipoaching efforts. However, those opposed to legalization argue that it would increase demand, drive market prices up, and streamline illegal horn transportation. This research provides a dynamical systems model that captures the arguments from both positions. A sensitivity analysis is conducted using partial rank correlation coefficients to determine the relative influence of parameters on model outcomes. A threshold analysis identifies regions of parameter space where legalization will support or harm rhino population recovery.
