Voter Turnout and Protest Under Dictatorships
Start Date
August 2025
End Date
August 2025
Location
ALT 304
Abstract
While previous research has linked electoral malpractice to protest in authoritarian regimes, the relationship between voter turnout and protest remains underexplored. Drawing on grievance-based theories of political behavior, this study hypothesizes that in non-democracies, higher voter turnout is positively associated with post-election protest, particularly when elections are perceived to lack integrity. Using logistic regression models on a cross-national dataset covering over 60 countries between 2013 and 2022, this paper finds strong support for both hypotheses: voter turnout increases the likelihood of protest in non-democratic settings, and this effect intensifies under conditions of low electoral integrity. These findings suggest that voter turnout may reflect heightened public expectations, which, when unmet in unfair elections, generate grievances that mobilize protest.
Voter Turnout and Protest Under Dictatorships
ALT 304
While previous research has linked electoral malpractice to protest in authoritarian regimes, the relationship between voter turnout and protest remains underexplored. Drawing on grievance-based theories of political behavior, this study hypothesizes that in non-democracies, higher voter turnout is positively associated with post-election protest, particularly when elections are perceived to lack integrity. Using logistic regression models on a cross-national dataset covering over 60 countries between 2013 and 2022, this paper finds strong support for both hypotheses: voter turnout increases the likelihood of protest in non-democratic settings, and this effect intensifies under conditions of low electoral integrity. These findings suggest that voter turnout may reflect heightened public expectations, which, when unmet in unfair elections, generate grievances that mobilize protest.
