Political Affiliation in the 2024 Presidential Election in Predicting Influenza Vaccination Rate Across the United States
Start Date
April 2025
Location
3rd floor - Library
Abstract
Limiting the spread of infectious disease is made possible through the introduction of vaccines. When herd immunity is reached, those who are immunocompromised or unvaccinated can be protected by the vaccination status of others within their community. However, vaccination rates have begun to fluctuate on a national level, with numerous factors that could be associated with these observable changes. Flu vaccines are among one of the most common vaccines children and adults can receive, but it is hypothesized that political affiliation may be correlated with vaccination rate. This study aimed to examine how political parties in the 2024 presidential election can be associated with flu vaccination rate. Data was collected via CDC public records and BBC voting data from November 2024, including voting percentages from Democratic and Republican voters by state. On average, the mean flu vaccination percentage for Republican voters was 41.44% compared to 51.27% for Democratic voters with statistically significant differences of p<10^-9. There was found to be a positive association between Democratic voters and flu vaccination (m = 0.41, R^2 = 0.51) compared to the negative correlation with Republican voters (m= -0.41, R^2 = 0.53). Average flu vaccination rate as of November 2024 was found to be 45.29% (SD = 6.63, SE = 0.93). Examining longitudinal data of voting trends compared to other vaccines (childhood immunizations or COVID-19 vaccination) could provide more expansive correlations and trends, with the potential to predict the spread of certain diseases in the future.
Political Affiliation in the 2024 Presidential Election in Predicting Influenza Vaccination Rate Across the United States
3rd floor - Library
Limiting the spread of infectious disease is made possible through the introduction of vaccines. When herd immunity is reached, those who are immunocompromised or unvaccinated can be protected by the vaccination status of others within their community. However, vaccination rates have begun to fluctuate on a national level, with numerous factors that could be associated with these observable changes. Flu vaccines are among one of the most common vaccines children and adults can receive, but it is hypothesized that political affiliation may be correlated with vaccination rate. This study aimed to examine how political parties in the 2024 presidential election can be associated with flu vaccination rate. Data was collected via CDC public records and BBC voting data from November 2024, including voting percentages from Democratic and Republican voters by state. On average, the mean flu vaccination percentage for Republican voters was 41.44% compared to 51.27% for Democratic voters with statistically significant differences of p<10^-9. There was found to be a positive association between Democratic voters and flu vaccination (m = 0.41, R^2 = 0.51) compared to the negative correlation with Republican voters (m= -0.41, R^2 = 0.53). Average flu vaccination rate as of November 2024 was found to be 45.29% (SD = 6.63, SE = 0.93). Examining longitudinal data of voting trends compared to other vaccines (childhood immunizations or COVID-19 vaccination) could provide more expansive correlations and trends, with the potential to predict the spread of certain diseases in the future.
